The Psychology of the SGP

The **Same Game Parlay (SGP)** has transformed sports betting by monetizing the **Conjunction Fallacy**, where bettors mistakenly believe a detailed, multi-event narrative (e.g., "Team A wins AND Player X scores") is more probable than a single outcome because it tells a coherent story. **Key Psychological Drivers:** * **Narrative Scripting:** SGPs allow bettors to wager on a game's "script" rather than just the final score, exploiting the **Illusion of Control**. * **The Near-Miss Effect:** Losing 3 out of 4 legs reinforces the behavior as "almost winning," driving retention despite the product having the highest **theoretical hold** (15–30%) in the industry. * **Lottery Hybridization:** SGPs offer high-variance, jackpot-style payouts for small stakes, appealing to recreational players by masking the compounding bookmaker margins.