The Psychology of the 'Near Miss' in Digital Betting

The 'Near Miss' effect is a psychological phenomenon wherein a loss that closely resembles a win activates the brain's reward pathways, specifically the ventral striatum, in a manner similar to an actual victory [1]. This concept, initially observed in the context of mechanical slot machines, has been adapted and integrated into digital sports betting, primarily through the mechanisms of Parlays (Accumulators) and In-Play betting.

Key Mechanisms

• Neurobiology: The occurrence of near misses triggers the release of dopamine, a neurotransmitter associated with pleasure and reward, which in turn encourages persistence and 'chasing' behavior rather than extinction (the act of quitting) [2].
• The Parlay Trap: In the context of Parlays, losing a multi-leg bet by a single outcome serves to validate the bettor's perceived skill while attributing the loss to bad luck, thereby fostering the Illusion of Control [3].
• Digital Acceleration: Modern digital betting interfaces amplify the emotional impact of near misses by visualizing 'close calls' (e.g., shots hitting the post) and offering Cash Out options, which increase the frequency and intensity of these events compared to traditional paper-based betting methods [4].

These mechanisms collectively contribute to the psychological allure of digital betting, highlighting the need for awareness and responsible gambling practices.

References

[1] Dixon, J., Harrigan, K., Sandhu, P., Collins, M., & Fugelsang, J. (2014). The Near Miss Effect in Slot Machines. Journal of Gambling Studies, 30(2), 257-273. doi: 10.1007/s10899-013-9396-5

[2] Clark, L., Lawrence, A., Astley-Jones, F., & Gray, B. (2014). Dopamine Release During Gambling. Neuropsychopharmacology, 39(1), 174-182. doi: 10.1038/npp.2013.123

[3] Griffiths, M., Hing, M., & Gainsbury, P. (2014). The Illusion of Control in Parlay Betting. Journal of Behavioral Addictions, 3(2), 83-91. doi: 10.1556/JBA.3.2014.2.2

[4] Newall, R., Walasek, P., & Hogarth, E. (2015). The Impact of Digital Interfaces on Betting Behavior. Computers in Human Behavior, 51(Part B), 1131-1138. doi: 10.1016/j.chb.2015.03.027