Introduction to the Psychology of the 'Near Miss' in Sports Betting

The concept of the 'near miss' is a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the field of psychology, particularly in the context of gambling and sports betting (Dixon, 2000) ^[1]. A near miss refers to a situation where an individual comes close to achieving a desired outcome, but ultimately falls short. In sports betting, near misses can have a significant impact on an individual's behavior and decision-making processes. This discussion will examine the psychology of the near miss in sports betting, exploring its effects on betting behavior and the underlying cognitive biases that contribute to its influence.

The Impact of Near Misses on Betting Behavior

Research has shown that near misses can lead to an increase in betting behavior, as individuals may feel that they are 'due' for a win after a near miss (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) ^[2]. This can result in a phenomenon known as the 'gambler's fallacy,' where individuals believe that a random event is more likely to occur because it has not occurred recently. For example, a bettor who experiences a near miss on a football game may be more likely to place a bet on the next game, believing that their luck is about to change.

Cognitive Biases and the Near Miss Effect

The near miss effect can be attributed to several cognitive biases, including the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) ^[3]. The availability heuristic refers to the tendency to overestimate the importance of information that is readily available, while the representativeness heuristic refers to the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles a typical case. In the context of sports betting, these biases can lead individuals to overestimate the likelihood of a win after a near miss, and to make irrational betting decisions as a result.

Conclusion

The psychology of the near miss is a complex phenomenon that can have significant effects on betting behavior in sports betting. By understanding the cognitive biases that contribute to the near miss effect, individuals can take steps to mitigate its influence and make more informed betting decisions. Further research is needed to fully explore the implications of the near miss effect in sports betting, and to develop strategies for reducing its impact on betting behavior.

References:

^[1]: Dixon, M. (2000). The effects of near misses on betting behavior. Journal of Gambling Studies, 16(2), 149-158.

^[2]: Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.

^[3]: Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.