The Hot Hand Fallacy in In-Play Betting

The hot hand fallacy is a cognitive bias that occurs when people believe that a random event is more likely to happen because it has happened recently [1]. In the context of sports betting, this fallacy can lead to poor decision-making and significant financial losses [2]. To research the history of the hot hand fallacy in in-play betting, it is essential to examine the origins of the concept, its prevalence in sports betting, and the impact of this bias on betting strategies.

Research Questions

• What are the historical roots of the hot hand fallacy, and how has it evolved over time? [3]
• How prevalent is the hot hand fallacy in in-play betting, and what are the most common sports and markets affected by it? [4]
• What are the consequences of the hot hand fallacy on betting outcomes, and how can bettors mitigate its effects? [5]

Methodology

A comprehensive review of existing literature on the hot hand fallacy, including academic studies and industry reports, will be conducted to provide a thorough understanding of the concept and its implications for in-play betting [6]. Additionally, an analysis of historical sports data and betting trends will be performed to identify patterns and correlations related to the hot hand fallacy [7].

Expected Outcomes

This research aims to provide a detailed understanding of the hot hand fallacy in in-play betting, including its history, prevalence, and consequences. The findings of this study will contribute to the development of more informed betting strategies and decision-making processes, ultimately reducing the negative impact of the hot hand fallacy on betting outcomes [8].